Methodology
How every pick is scored
Where the picks come from
We record the published fight picks of 50 journalists across 9 MMA media outlets, taken from the prediction articles each outlet publishes before a card. Every pick is stored with a link to its source. Coverage begins with UFC 153 (October 13, 2012).
What counts as a correct pick
A pick is correct when the fighter picked is the official winner. We score the winner only, not the predicted method or round. When a fight ends in a no contest or its result is overturned, no picked fighter won, so those picks are generally scored as misses.
How accuracy is calculated
Accuracy is correct picks divided by graded picks. Profile ranks and the homepage's recent leaders only count journalists and outlets with at least 10 graded picks in the period shown, so a perfect night on a handful of fights can't put someone on top. The full leaderboard lists everyone; check the pick count beside each name.
Outlier picks
When at least four tracked journalists pick a fight and 75% or more agree, every pick against that consensus is marked an outlier. Outlier accuracy shows how often a journalist is right when they go against the crowd.
Recent and all-time figures
Without an account you see the last 3 months; with a free account, the last 5 months. Full all-time records are for subscribers; public profiles show the all-time figure as a rounded band.
How often it updates
Each card is added after the results are official, usually within a few days of the event.